Forecasters

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), based at University College London in the UK, has issued seasonal outlooks for North Atlantic hurricane activity since December 1998. TSR predicts basin-wide tropical cyclone (TC) activity (numbers of storms of different strengths and the ACE index), U.S. landfalling TC activity, and Caribbean Lesser Antilles landfalling TC activity. The TSR prediction models are statistical in nature and are underpinned by atmospheric and oceanic predictors that have sound physical links to contemporaneous TC activity.