Forecasters

The University of Pennsylvania (PENN) seasonal North Atlantic tropical cyclone forecasts are made by using a multivariate Poisson regression model, trained on corrected historical tropical cyclone counts and climate predictors, and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in 2012 (Kozar et al., 2012). The primary variables considered by the statistical model in these forecasts include sea surface temperatures in the main development region and anticipated El Niño conditions. Penn State University Earth System Science Center has previously issued the annual seasonal forecast since 2007, however this forecast is now housed at Penn.