Forecasters

The interdisciplinary group of the Department of Statistics and the Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at North Carolina State University (NCSU) has been releasing annual hurricane prediction forecasts since 2005. The seasonal outlook is made by using a Poisson regression model, along with variable selection techniques. The model is trained and validated using historical data. The main predictors in the model include January-February measures of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and forecasted ENSO index measures.